| Rank | Ticker | Asset Class | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
PDBC | Alternatives / CommoditiesDEF | +1.52 | +1.17 | +0.69 | +0.35 | Pos |
2 |
XLE | Sector Rotation / EnergyOFF | +1.64 | +0.91 | +0.54 | +0.32 | Pos |
3 |
DBMF | Managed FuturesDEF | +0.75 | +0.48 | +0.37 | +0.30 | Pos |
4 |
FXF | Currency Safe HavensDEF | +0.72 | +0.55 | +0.22 | +0.09 | Pos |
5 |
SH | Inverse ETFsDEF | +0.84 | +0.35 | +0.12 | −0.18 | Pos |
6 |
GLD | Precious MetalsDEF | −1.10 | +0.24 | +0.62 | +0.71 | Pos |
7 |
STPU | Yield Curve SteepenersDEF | +0.36 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.12 | Pos |
8 |
TIP | Treasuries / TIPSDEF | −0.36 | +0.08 | +0.14 | +0.21 | Pos |
| Below VAA Threshold | |||||||
9 |
VXUS | MSCI ex-USDEF | −1.44 | +0.28 | +0.48 | +0.40 | Neg |
10 |
MTUM | Event-Driven MomentumOFF | −0.96 | −0.24 | +0.18 | +0.22 | Neg |
11 |
QQQ | Growth / TechOFF | −1.08 | −0.32 | +0.10 | +0.28 | Neg |
12 |
BTAL | Anti-BetaDEF | −0.25 | −0.45 | −0.42 | −0.27 | Neg |
13 |
SVXY | Short VolatilityOFF | −2.16 | −0.88 | −0.28 | −0.10 | Neg |
Weekly Data
The 1W and 2W columns confirm and amplify the 1M signal. The same seven ETFs that are positive at 1W are positive at 1M — VIXM, XLE, PDBC, SH, DBMF, FXF, and STPU — no divergences.
The sharpest 2W-to-1W deceleration is in PDBC (14.9% → 3.9%) and XLE (14.2% → 5.0%), suggesting the initial oil spike is moderating. Meanwhile, VIXM accelerated from 2W relative to other assets, indicating fear is building rather than fading.
GLD is the outlier: positive on the 13612W composite but deeply negative at 1W (−7.5%) and 2W (−9.7%). This is the March margin-call liquidation effect — gold sold alongside everything on Mar 18. If you believe this is transient (as it was in 2020 and 2008), GLD could be a contrarian add at these levels.
Highlights
The consistency is striking — the same seven ETFs that are positive at the 1-week horizon are positive at 1-month and on the 13612W composite. There are no divergences where something looks good short-term but bad longer-term (or vice versa) among the positive group. That kind of alignment across timeframes is a strong signal.
The deceleration pattern in PDBC and XLE is worth watching. Both had massive 2-week gains (14–15%) but the 1-week gains are notably smaller (4–5%), suggesting the initial oil panic-buying is being digested. If this deceleration continues into negative territory at the 1W level, those would be the first assets to fall out of a six-asset portfolio at the next rebalance.
GLD’s divergence is the most analytically engaging data point. Historically, gold selloffs during liquidity crises (2008, March 2020) reverse sharply within 2–4 weeks as the forced selling exhausts itself. If that pattern holds, GLD could be the strongest candidate to displace SH or STPU in a six-asset portfolio by end of month.